India versus Pakistan and the power of a six: an analysis of cricket results.

To paraphrase CLR James, “What do they know of South Asia who do not cricket know?” George Orwell described sport as war minus the shooting. South Asian cricket has been dubbed war minus the nuclear missiles. The result of a sports match can trigger cardiac deaths, and contests between India and Pakistan have prompted shootings, riots, killings, and sudden death. Cricket has been used as an extension of foreign policy—to instigate peace or prolong hostilities. However, regional cooperation will probably increase prosperity, with some commentators arguing that cricket is an important component of public health strategies. Facing up to the future requires a dispassionate appraisal of the past. How have India and Pakistan fared against each other in cricket? To answer this question— uppermost in the minds of over a billion people in South Asia andmanymillions outside—we compared 50 years of test matches and one day matches between India and Pakistan. One incident galvanised the emotions of these two nations. In 1986 Pakistan batsman Javed Miandad scored a dramatic match-winning six off the last ball in a one day match that his side had looked like losing until that delivery—a shot heard throughout South Asia and much of the world. The burning question since has been what effect Miandad’s six—a reference point in South Asia to rival John F Kennedy’s shooting and the winning baseball strike in Don DeLillo’s Underworld—had on the subsequent performance of the teams? Could analysis of results before and after this reference point answer the question, end conjecture, and allow peace to blossom?